Ray Eitel-Porter – the data analyst’s view

To champion a blind reliance on data, divorced from intuition, would be a foolhardy move. But to overlook the potential for data to help us make better decisions would be equally unwise.

When data reinforces what our instinct is telling us, no questions are asked. Things begin to get interesting, however, when what it reports back strikes us as counterintuitive. It is at times like these that we must understand the superiority of machines at monitoring and processing vast amounts of data, devoid as they are of human bias and error.

Yet pitting data against intuition, as though the two were opposing forces, reveals a fundamental misunderstanding of their respective natures: for intuition is not without rational foundation but rather fed by life experiences, much as the treatment of data is not mindless number-crunching but a process of analytical rigour.

Gone are the days of primitive data analysis that saw credit cards declined at the slightest whiff of an uncharacteristic purchase – technological advances now mean that sophisticated models, imbued with intuition, are available and help avoid the false positives of yore.

Indeed, this progress in the field of data analysis has allowed for the mass production of intuition: much as the village greengrocer can make recommendations based on their knowledge of what the customer likes or what has proved popular with others, this era of loyalty cards, transaction histories and pattern recognition now means the same is possible on an industrial scale.

With the availability of data growing exponentially, and the capacity of computers to crunch this information in real time cantering along at an equal pace, the potential applications for data analysis are still revealing themselves, leaving us with a world in which genome-specific medicines no longer seem the stuff of science fiction.

Chris Clark – the client’s view

For all the patterns that numbers have the potential to paint, it is surprising that, when staring data in the face, we so often miss what it’s trying to communicate.

There is a tendency in business to respond to the news data brings us in a predictable, two-pronged manner: if the data tells us we’re doing well, we breathe a sigh of relief and forget about it; and if the data tell us we’re doing badly, it’s discounted as nonsense and forgotten about. Two different paths leading to the same pointless outcome.

Yet this reaction is indicative of the human response to numbers. The data might tell us one thing (that London is the safest city in the world, say) but the images we see, the stories we hear – which paint a picture more immediately evocative than numbers ever could – leave little more than a disbelieving public.

But it is about time we started looking at data differently – and seeing the pictures lying latent in the numbers. Far from the cold and inhuman beasts they are often billed as, numbers offer us an endlessly fascinating account of human behaviour, a front-row seat as the human condition plays out in all its glory.

When we read data, we mustn’t forget – or wilfully suppress – the head-start being human gives us in getting to the core of what the numbers are saying; it’s this gift of shared subjectivity that enables us to read the data creatively and in context, drilling down to its essence.

So rather than taking data and simply reporting it, or taking data and just rejecting it, we need to read it through the filter of our human experience and then use it in tandem with our intuition.

Indeed, as the grand masters of the chess world have long known, the key to success is tapping into that most underutilised component of the human condition, wisdom – which, at its essence, promotes a world viewed through the lens of experience and intelligence.

Boardrooms love their numbers, and rightly so – but it’s time to make room for human experience and intuition in there too.

Peter Wallis – the commentator’s view

We need look no further than the advertising world to see the historic dynamic of this debate in action. Where once agencies had been full service entities, chunks began to break free: media and money distanced themselves from the creative domain, leaving both sides speaking cruelly of the other. The former were nerds, if you believed the creatives; the latter were arrogant and fluffy, according to the number-crunchers.

Yet this tear would now appear to be sewing itself back together again. Take Gillian Tett, author of Fool’s Gold, as our example: with an academic background in anthropology, she found herself at the derivatives desk of the FT and, in her quest to make sense of this strange new world, lighted upon realisations about the potential trajectory of the industry, which the fantastically clever data specialists had failed to see coming.

In the one corner we therefore have the data miners, whose cautious nerdiness allows only for incremental market gains; in the other we find the boardroom bully, proud badge-wearers of their borderline psychopathy, capable of strategic leaps, but drunk on their own celebrity.

But enough! Enough of the archaic market research world that crowbarred apart quant and qual, designating them unnaturally as two separate corporate entities!

In the face of this madness, the answer is balance. We should interweave these two feeds, seeking to bridge the gap between the data robots and the snakes in suits.

The Foundation’s view

Yes, we concur that the idea of pitting data versus intuition is a most daft one…but it created a lively and stimulating conversation! Thank you Ray, Chris and Peter – and also to everyone in the audience who put the speakers on the spot or shared their own point of view.

Our reflection on the evening is that intuition must have room to be heard at the high tables of business – but not any old intuition. There is the lazy variety, filled with disabling prejudices, which will lead to poor and limiting decisions if left unchecked. There is also a different type of intuition – informed, engaged with the human condition, drawing on life’s experiences, stimulated and honed by the appreciation of data. This is what Chris called wisdom and what Ray meant when he said that ‘intuition prospers on a bedrock of knowledge’. The idea of informed intuition also lies behind Malcolm Gladwell’s 10,000 hour rule – mentioned by Peter – as being the time required to excel at anything.

The Foundation’s contribution to business can be seen as a desire to strengthen and stretch our clients’ intuition – both individually and collectively. And we do this by encouraging and creating space for ‘outside in’ thinking – for example reconnecting one on one with the customer, drawing on specialist academic and industry knowledge, learning laterally from other sectors, organisations and management teams, and working specialist researchers and data analysts. In so doing we are helping clients connect their right brain with their left, build their personal and corporate wisdom and, crucially, embolden their confidence to act upon it.